Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
