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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd